The hottest PE market showed an oscillatory trend

2022-08-25
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PE market showed an oscillatory trend in the late period

boosted by the recovery of demand, the plastic market has rebounded recently. In the later stage, considering the increase in supply and the decline in costs, PE prices may show an oscillatory trend

since July, the demand for greenhouse film has turned strong, traders and downstream enterprises have been enthusiastic about low-level replenishment, and PE prices have risen. Technically, the price of plastic is still in the downward channel. Whether the 1901 contract can stand at 9560 yuan/ton has raised doubts about the response of plastic

demand gradually picks up

in June, demand was poor, and plastic prices continued to decline. However, after hitting a new low in the past year, downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for bargain hunting and replenishment rebounded, and the gradual improvement of the demand for greenhouse film further strengthened this replenishment behavior. At present, the operating rate of downstream packaging film is stable; The operating load of greenhouse film is 23%. Although it is low, it shows a continuous upward trend. Therefore, with the arrival of the peak season of plastic film consumption, the demand for plastics is gradually increasing

demand picks up, PE supply is tight, and inventory has decreased. As of July 26, the PE inventory of East China Petrochemical was 50265 tons, a decrease of 9535 tons or 15.94% from the peak in early July; The inventory of East China warehouse was 126000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons or 13.70% from the high point in early July; Social inventory was 217965 tons, down 35485 tons or 14% from the peak in early July. Due to the low inventory, the willingness to replenish the inventory in the market further increased, which stimulated the rise of methanol prices

maintenance devices have been restarted in succession

in the early stage, the plastic price is low, the enterprise benefit is poor, and the consumption is in the off-season. Many PE production enterprises choose device maintenance at the end of June and early July, involving a production capacity of 6.26 million tons/year. However, after consumption picks up and prices rise, overhaul devices will resume production in a large area, and some of the remaining devices will also resume production in early August. In August, only 760000 T/a units of Daqing Petrochemical were planned to stop production

it should be noted that the recent devaluation of the RMB, the rising cost of Imported Ethylene and plastic products, and the later import volume may decline. In addition, China has countered the tariffs imposed by the United States, including ethylene and plastic products, and the proportion of domestic imports of ethylene and plastic from the United States is not small, which may affect imports. In the later stage, the market's dependence on domestic output will increase by looking at Baidu's 100 million orders

crude oil and coal are easy to fall but difficult to rise

entering August, the consumption of refined oil is nearing the end, and the supporting effect of demand on crude oil prices is weakened. In addition, the number of active drilling wells in the United States continues to increase, the production continues to be high, and the rise in crude oil prices in the United States is weak. In the Middle East, although the sanctions against Iran affect the country's exports, other OPEC member countries are trying to increase production, and the focus of crude oil operation is likely to move down

in terms of coal, the summer peak of power consumption is also drawing to a close, and the inventory of coal and power enterprises has begun to accumulate, and the coal price has fallen sharply

crude oil and coal are easy to fall but difficult to rise, and PE costs are bound to fall

In conclusion, the peak consumption season of plastic sheeting is approaching, and the psychology of buying up or not buying down urges the downstream to take goods, and the demand for plastic is picking up. However, the early maintenance devices have resumed production, and the increase in supply will alleviate the current tight supply problem. At the same time, the prices of crude oil and coal in the upstream have a weakening trend, and the support of cost to the hardness and other material markets of plastic dental materials has weakened. Based on the above judgment, the plastic price does not have the basis for a sharp rise, and the recent market should treat the price with a short-term rebound

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